GAMEDAY EVE Report: UMass vs. JMU Football

#18 UMass Minutemen (4-3, 2-2) vs. #15 JMU Dukes (4-3, 1-3)
Oct. 30, 2010 - 3:30pm - Harrisonburg, VA

Online video: MadiZONE (subscription required)
Online audio: MadiZONE (free)
Television: Comcast SportsNet-Mid-Atlantic, Comcast SportsNet-New England
Radio: JMU n/Telos Radio Network (Harrisonburg WSVA 550-AM, Roanoke WWWR 910-AM, Richmond WREJ 1540-AM, Hampton Roads WGH 1310-AM or ESPN 94.1-FM
Live Stats: JMUSports.com

Weather Report

Tailgating	8am	34°	0% (precip)
Mid-tailgate	12pm	55°	0%
Getting into the stadium	3pm	62°	0%
Kickoff	3:30pm	63°	0%
Game over	6:30pm	55°	0%

Line for the game
JMU by 12

Injuries
Too many to name at this point...

The Numbers (game averages)
JMU Sagarin (96); Strength of Schedule: 60.58 (124)
JMU Rushing Offense: 166 yds - UMass Rushing Defense: 156 yds
JMU Passing Offense: 145 yds - UMass Passing Defense: 163 yds
JMU Total Offense: 311 yds - UMass Total Defense: 318 yds
JMU Scoring Offense: 18.14 - UMass Scoring Defense: 22.43
JMU Sacks allowed: 1.43 - UMass Sacks: 1.14

UMass Sagarin (121); Strength of Schedule: 56.04 (162)
UMass Rushing Offense: 176 yds - JMU Rushing Defense: 131 yds
UMass Passing Offense: 245 yds - JMU Passing Defense: 150 yds
UMass Total Offense: 421 yds - JMU Total Defense: 281 yds
UMass Scoring Offense: 24.43 - JMU Scoring Defense: 13.43
UMass Sacks allowed: 1.43 - JMU Sacks: 1.14

JMU predictor: 64.57 (+3 home); UMass predictor 58.18 = JMU by 9.39 (o/u 31.5)

What to watch
You can probably call this week "The Ditching of the Pistol." Our offense gained some variety and a little bit of confidence up at Villanova last week, and we've hopefully been practicing more of that. Dudzik had 22 completions in 33 attempts for 213 yards. That is by far the most passes we've seen from JMU this year (and in years past). I got halfway through 2008's stats and gave up trying to find a game where we passed that many times...especially when we had that many completions. The pistol obviously wasn't working for us, especially when we lined up and ran it every first and second (and sometimes third) down. Throwing in an I-formation and wildcat on those downs really helps throw the defense off. Our biggest problem is running on first and second down and passing every third down. And then when we're down at the end of the game, we start trying to bomb the ball down the field. We have a scripted playbook and every team knows what we're going to do. We showed some glimmers of hope against Villanova by throwing the ball a lot more and showing those other formations. UMass has a pretty good defense, so we're going to have to mix it up so that can't attack our weak offensive line all afternoon.

Last week against UNH, UMass passed for 450 yards, but only ran for 43 in 26 rushes. Pretty much every week we lose another defensive started, and this week Pat Williams is questionable after a concussion last game. Our #1 job this week will be to stop their passing game and prevent any long plays. Last week we allowed more big plays than during any other game all season. Even with almost 500 yards of offense, UMass only scored 13 points, so we need to keep them out of the endzone. They also had a lot of penalties and three turnovers (sound familiar). Look for Max Alexandre to play a larger part in his second week back after tearing his ACL in spring practice.

This week we need to win the penalty and turnover battle. We shot ourselves in the foot last week making stupid penalties whenever we got a good drive going.

Both teams are fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Either team can probably make it into the playoffs with a 7-4 record this year. UMass has Maine, Delaware, and Rhode Island left on their schedule after this week. Maine and Rhode Island and "should win" games, but Delaware is probably a loss for UMass. That means that we are their most legitimate third win on their schedule. The Dukes have Richmond, W&M, and Maine left on their schedule. We "should" beat UMass and Richmond, though both will be tough games. Maine is definitely a "should win" considering it's our last game and could determine whether we get in or not. The elements in Maine in November will make it tough, but they aren't fighting for a playoff spot, so that should help us out. W&M is doubtful, but if our offense can put things together in the next couple weeks we definitely have a shot.

What we've learned this season (as we do most seasons) is that no CAA team is unbeatable. Anything can happen and it should be an interesting final 4 weeks.

The Series
UMass is always a tough team to play. We've won 3 of the last 4, including a 17-14 win up in Massachusetts last year.

My Thoughts
Last week ended up in an interesting way. Villanova scored how much I was hoping they'd score, but we failed to hit double-digits for the first time all year (though we would have done that if we had hit our 33 yard FG), so we couldn't take advantage of it. I think we'll see a revived offense after having 2 weeks to prepare an expanded playbook. If our offense can play better, it can revive our defense which has been hindered by injuries the further we go into the season. Our guys are feeling the heat now and know they have to win. I believe we'll pull this one out.

Windbreaker prediction: JMU - 24, Villanova - 21

JMU Auto Emblems
Don't forget to support the JMU Windbreaker and purchase a JMU Chrome Auto Emblem from the Start Wearing Purple Store! Please!

Game Notes
JMU Game Notes

Score Updates
To get score updates on Twitter, subscribe to @JMUWindbreaker. I'll be posting scores at the end of each quarter and any major action that happens.

And as always...