#11 JMU Dukes (4-2, 1-2) vs. #6 Villanova Wildcats (4-2, 2-1)
Oct. 23, 2010 - 3:30pm - Villanova, PA
Weather Report
| Tailgating | 8am | 41° | 0% (precip) |
| Mid-tailgate | 12pm | 57° | 0% |
| Getting into the stadium | 3pm | 64° | 0% |
| Kickoff | 3:30pm | 64° | 0% |
| Game over | 6:30pm | 60° | 0% |
Line for the game
Villanova by 10.5
Injuries
Too many to name at this point... Plus Coach Matthews closed practice so this week's injury list wouldn't be current.
Villanova has been missing their key playmaker, Szczur, for the past few weeks, but he may be back tomorrow.
The Numbers (game averages)
JMU Sagarin (89); Strength of Schedule: 57.53 (149)
JMU Rushing Offense: 179 yds - Villanova Rushing Defense: 84 yds
JMU Passing Offense: 134 yds - Villanova Passing Defense: 196 yds
JMU Total Offense: 313 yds - Villanova Total Defense: 279 yds
JMU Scoring Offense: 20 - Villanova Scoring Defense: 16.17
JMU Sacks allowed: 1.0 - Villanova Sacks: 1.33
Villanova Sagarin (79); Strength of Schedule: 56.93 (154)
Villanova Rushing Offense: 192 yds - JMU Rushing Defense: 118 yds
Villanova Passing Offense: 204 yds - JMU Passing Defense: 148 yds
Villanova Total Offense: 397 yds - JMU Total Defense: 266 yds
Villanova Scoring Offense: 32.67 - JMU Scoring Defense: 13.33
Villanova Sacks allowed: 1.50 - JMU Sacks: 1.17
JMU predictor: 64.68; Villanova predictor 70.66 (+3 home) = Villanova by 8.98
What to watch
What can I say...once again I have another week of saying our offense is struggling. And it's just gotten worse. After having a good turnover ratio for the year, we lost all of that against UNH. The Dukes had one fumble returned for a TD and two interceptions. Towards the end of the game we obviously got desperate and started taking shots downfield when our guys weren't open. Our blocking still isn't where it needs to be to open up holes to run through or give Dudzik the time to plant his feet and throw an accurate ball.
My keys to the game are the same as they have been: short routes to Sharpe in the seam, an occasional long pass down the sideline to keep them from cheating up too much, and a few 2 back sets to help keep the pressure off in blitzes. Villanova has a very good rushing defense, so we're going to have to try to beat them in the air, which is very very tough for this team. Let's hope the young offensive linemen suddenly have an epiphany and learn how to block. We need to figure out some way to give Dudzik and extra couple seconds to check his main receiver and then check the secondary receiver. The receivers also need to not be so scared to adjust to the ball. The first interception wouldn't have been an interception if the receiver had slowed down his route to catch the ball. He either would have gotten it or drawn defensive pass interference.
Villanova has a very good balanced offense. Even without Szczur, they're great. With him, they are even more dangerous as he has put up incredible numbers on the Dukes in the past. Hopefully even if he's back he won't be 100%. Our defense has been solid this year, except for the second half of the UNH game. With a couple injuries, they're ability to stop the run has started to dwindle. It looks like we might have to pull the redshirt off of sophomore Adrian Cavanaugh just to have enough guys to rotate in.
Villanova lost to a better-than-usual Temple team by a touchdown, crushed Lehigh, crushed Towson, beat Penn, lost to W&M by a touchdown, and then crushed Maine last week. I guess our best shot is to hope for the score to be 31-24, since both of their loses have been 31-24.
Special teams was pretty bad last week. Skahn, our punter who started the year amazingly, started kicking short. Thanks to another injury they also moved him in to do placekicking, which he's not very good at. There's a possibility we'll pull a redshirt off of a pretty highly-touted freshman and have him play. Scott showed a spark as a return man returning one punt to the UNH 11 yard line which led us to our second touchdown. If the two other guys running beside Scott decided to block the punter it would have been a touchdown on the return. Let's hope Scott can stay consistently on that level from now on.
The Series
JMU vs. Villanova is usually a tough game. In 2004, when we shut them out, 17-0, on their field, was when many people took notice of our team on our way to a National Championship. We also won 28-13 in 2005. We lost at Villanova by one, 20-21, in 2006. Landers had one of the best passing games against them of his career in 2007 (a game I scored a sideline pass for) and destroyed them 35-7. In 2008 we had a memorable last second hail mary touchdown catch in a monsoon. We then met them in the playoffs at home for the quarterfinals and beat them again, 31-27. Last year wasn't so good though. Right after Dudzik got injured we played them on our Homecoming and got humiliated 0-27 on a rainy, miserable day.
My Thoughts
This game doesn't look good. They are the defending National Champions. Even before the season started I basically marked this down as a game we would more than likely lose. Now that we have several injuries and our offense has all but stalled...it looks even worse. I keep trying to think of ways that we could win this game, but it's tough. With all of our injuries, this game is probably tougher than our game against Virginia Tech. We also don't have the element of surprise. Unless we change our gameplan or have some surprise all-star performances, we're not gonna win this game. Our only hope is to have a defensive or special teams touchdown, hold them to under 10 points, and manage to get one touchdown or field goal on offense. I just don't see us scoring more than 14 with all our injuries.
Windbreaker prediction: JMU - 14, Villanova - 24
What I hope happens: JMU - 17 - Villanova 14
JMU Auto Emblems
Don't forget to support the JMU Windbreaker and purchase a JMU Chrome Auto Emblem from the Start Wearing Purple Store!
Game Notes
JMU Game Notes
Score Updates
To get score updates on Twitter, subscribe to @JMUWindbreaker. I'll be posting scores at the end of each quarter and any major action that happens.
And as always...
No comments:
Post a Comment