Sunday, September 11, 2011

JMU 2011 Football after 2 games

I, like many, had high hopes coming into this year. One of the top defenses from last year returning basically every single player and a couple players coming back from injury meant as long as our offense could show a slight improvement. Justin Thorpe coming back from injury to play QB led to cautious optimism among many fans. Dae'Quan Scott moving to running back also seemed like something that would jump start our offense.

Last week, against UNC, JMU's defense got dominated. They were much larger up front and that meant that their QB could pick apart our secondary and their giant RB had large holes to run through. So the results on defense could be overlooked as a display of how the rest of the season would go. On offense, much of the second quarter and part of the third quarter looked good. Thorpe made some very good passes (even some downfield) and our rushing was decent against a very good FBS defense. We also got out of the game with zero turnovers on offense.

Last night with 25k JMU fans behind them, the Dukes looked a little jittery, out of their element, and pretty unimpressive. I'll start with the offense. Looking at the stats, our rushing offense was nearly unstoppable. 342 total rushing yards on 45 carries equals 7.6 yards/carry. That's a very impressive stat. Scott looked good, but was tackled far too easily for our starting back. The wildcat formations were a nice mix-up, but weren't very effective. Not sure if we just need to block better, but it just didn't seem like that big of a boost. Jordan Anderson looked pretty good, and is slightly bigger, but again, wasn't a standout. Jauan Latney was maybe the biggest surprise on offense and had some outstanding runs. I'm hoping we get to see more of him in the next few weeks. Thorpe looked okay running the ball and seems to be making much better decisions than he did two years ago, but still needs some work hitting the holes instead of dancing around too much. Kerby Long had some very good rushes and seemed to work really well. While gaining yards is important, the biggest thing that this stat box leaves out is fumbles, which will be covered more later.


RUSHING No. Gain Loss Net TD Lg Avg. 
SCOTT,D.  20 145 138 32 6.9 
ANDERSON,J.  10 66 66 17 6.6 
LATNEY,J.  53 53 34 13.2 
THORPE,J.  62 11 51 29 6.4 
LONG,K.  34 34 15 11.3 
Totals... 45 360 18 342 34 7.6 


Passing was our biggest weakness. By far. After a decent showing at UNC, Thorpe completely fell apart against CCSU. He should have been able to pick them apart, but instead he made very poor throws the whole night. He went 5 for 11 for 47 total yards and 2 interceptions. He was also sacked once (which killed a great-looking drive). We struggled the second half on offense though because we only attempted a single pass the entire half, and it was incomplete.


Our defense was great in the first half, but struggled in the 4th quarter. I'm not sure if they were tired by the end of the game, but they gave up some bad plays that kept drives alive. Between turnovers at their goalline, a great punt, and a good kickoff (and bad return) they took over at their 1, 2, 5, and 10 yard lines. We were just one yard away from getting safeties several times during the game, but we just couldn't get it. Once we forced a fumble when the QB was hit in their endzone, but he got a quick shovel pass off before he went down. Any of these chances could have ended up completely changing the game, much less if two or three of them had ended up as safeties. We did force two interceptions, but we still did very poorly at getting to their quarterback and putting pressure on him. We also lost one of those interceptions on the runback. The number one rule after getting a turnover: if you don't know how to secure the ball, fall to the ground immediately. They got a first down because we intercepted it and then fumbled. Just fall and let the offense take over. The worst part about the defense...after two games we no sacks. That pathetic and has been a problem for a few years. We need to force the issue a lot more on defense.


So now...the most interesting part of last night's game: the drive chart.

  Drive Started Drive Ended Consumed   
Team Qtr Spot Time Obtained Spot Time   How Lost Pl-Yds TOP RZ 
JMU  1st H34 15:00 Kickoff V43 12:54   Interception 4-23 2:06   
CCSU  1st V02 12:54 Interception V34 07:52   Punt 9-32 5:02   
JMU  1st H13 07:52 Punt V00 05:09 TOUCHDOWN 6-87 2:43   
CCSU  1st V10 05:09 Kickoff V06 02:31   Punt 4--4 2:38   
JMU  1st V34 02:31 Punt V38 00:53   Downs 4--4 1:38   
CCSU  1st V38 00:53 Downs V40 14:53   Punt 3-2 1:00   
JMU  2nd H39 14:53 Punt H34 12:48   Punt 4--5 2:05   
  
CCSU  2nd V32 12:48 Punt V47 10:19   Punt 6-15 2:29   
JMU  2nd H14 10:19 Punt V36 06:21   Downs 7-50 3:58   
CCSU  2nd V36 06:21 Downs H46 03:21   Punt 4-18 3:00   
JMU  2nd H20 03:21 Punt V40 00:33   Interception 8-40 2:48   
CCSU  2nd V18 00:33 Interception V17 00:00   End of half 1--1 0:33   
CCSU  3rd V20 15:00 Kickoff V22 14:01   Punt 3-2 0:59   
  
JMU  3rd H36 14:01 Punt V01 11:33   Fumble 5-63 2:28 
CCSU  3rd V01 11:33 Fumble H45 07:54   Interception 7-54 3:39   
JMU  3rd H33 07:54 Interception H40 05:48   Punt 3-7 2:06   
CCSU  3rd V26 05:48 Punt V31 03:41   Punt 3-5 2:07   
JMU  3rd H28 03:41 Punt H37 01:48   Punt 3-9 1:53   
CCSU  3rd V25 01:48 Punt H18 12:53 FIELD GOAL 10-57 3:55 
JMU  4th H37 12:53 Kickoff H37 12:53   Fumble 0-0 0:00   
  
CCSU  4th H37 12:53 Fumble H03 09:48   Downs 7-34 3:05 
JMU  4th H03 09:48 Downs V34 05:12   Punt 8-63 4:36   
CCSU  4th V05 05:12 Punt V02 04:53   Punt 3--3 0:19   
JMU  4th V36 04:53 Punt V00 03:10 TOUCHDOWN 4-36 1:43 
CCSU  4th V19 03:10 Kickoff V24 03:01   Interception 2-5 0:09   
JMU  4th V23 00:00 Interception V23 03:01   Fumble 0-0 0:00   
CCSU  4th V23 03:01 Fumble H00 00:00 TOUCHDOWN 16-77 3:01 


Our first and last drives of the first half ended in interceptions. After our first touchdown, here's how our next 5 drives ended: turnover on downs, punt, turnover on downs, interception, fumble. I do agree with taking smart risks and going for it on the 4th downs, I just don't really agree with the playcalls. The first 4th down it was 4 and 14 and we tried a long pass. I'm fine with that. I would have preferred to put more air under it so someone catches it. If we do, great. If they do, it's basically a punt instead and they get it with a longer field. We also got to that point because Thorpe got sacked for an 8-yard loss after being at 3rd and 6. The second time we tried to convert, I'm not ever sure what the call was. Thorpe got it and just stood there 3 yards back in the pocket. He froze up when they rushed through and he just stood there with the ball and went down with it. The interception in this stretch was a bad bad pass that we shouldn't have taken on 1st down. We also could have pinned them down inside their 5 AGAIN, but we were called for a personal foul because one of our receivers thought they needed to hit him helmet first when he was already on the ground. Then the next drive Anderson fumbled it on their 4 yard line.

So just for review, here's how many plays they started inside their 5: 2, 2, 1 (pass for 6 yards), 5, 2 (rush for 4/punt), 1, 1, 2, 5 (pass for 33 yards), 3, 2, 2 (punt). That's 4 drives that had multiple plays inside their 5 and we couldn't get a safety.

We threw an interception in CCSU territory (on first down), turned it over on downs on their 38, turned it over on downs on their 36, threw an interception on their 40, fumbled it on their 1, punted on their 34, and fumbled an interception return at their 23. The first drive of the second quarter started badly because of a 15 yard tripping penalty making us start at 1st and 21 after a 4 yard run and included a 1-yard pass and an incomplete pass. The last two drives of the 3rd quarter were: Scott rush for 1, Scott rush for 3, Thorpe rush for 3, punt, Scott rush for 3, Scott rush for 4, Scott rush for 2, punt. This definitely hurt both our offense and defense with short drives, but the game shouldn't have been that close at that point to start with.

Edit: I forgot special teams. Kickoff to their 5, fumble, return of 5 yards; 34 yard punt, fair catch on their 32; 70 yard kickoff, touchback; 34 yard punt, fair catch on their 26; 38 yard punt, out of bounds at their 25; 29 yard punt, out of bounds at their 5; 64 yard kick, 18 yard return, forced fumble, fumble recovered by CCSU at their 19. And they hit both PAT's. Not outstanding, but not bad. Actually very good stats considering most FCS teams only have enough scholarships for their upperclassmen kickers and punters making recruiting the good ones very difficult. We also had a fumble on a kickoff after their field goal in the 4th quarter (missed it during the game as I had gone over to take pics from the old side and didn't see it in the play-by-play in my first run through). Fumbling on special teams is unacceptable (see 2008 Montana semifinal game) and should not be tolerated. After that fumble they drove all the way down to the JMU 3 but luckily we stopped them on 4th down.
Okay, so this has basically been a bunch of rambling, but hopefully the stats helped put some things together for you. While JMU is good in some areas, they definitely need improvement in others. JMU's passing game is struggling. Clearly. The running game is very good, they just need to mix it up sometimes, especially on first and third downs. The playcalling wasn't the main problem last night, though; it was execution. JMU had 4 turnovers, 3 in their territory. The defense also couldn't get any pressure and couldn't convert to get safeties when they had CCSU backed up to their endzone. JMU could have easily ended up with 30+ points if they're smarter and more secure with the ball. Considering JMU averaged 6.9 yards/play on offense, it seems they're just a few plays away from having an offense that puts up 20+ points on other teams, which is really all the defense needs. That's not drinking the kool-aid, that's actually looking at the numbers and seeing where JMU's weaknesses actually are instead of yelling "fire Mickey", "we won't win a CAA game all year", and many other ridiculous things. If JMU can fix a couple things we could be a playoff team, if they don't get better over the next couple games, then there will be another less optimistic post.