GAMEDAY EVE Report: JMU Football vs. Virginia Tech

#15(FCS) JMU Dukes (1-0, 0-0) vs.   
#13(FBS) Virginia Tech Hokies (0-1, 0-0)
Sept. 11, 2010 - 1:30pm - Blacksburg, VA


Watch the game on ESPN3 or at one of the official JMU viewing locations


Weather Report

Tailgating	8am	58°	10% (precip)
Mid-tailgate	11am	65°	10%
Kickoff	1:30pm	67°	30%
Game over	4:30pm	69°	50%

Line for the game
VT by 31 (started at 25.5)

The Numbers...
...don't really matter at this point in the season against vastly different opponents.

What to watch
JMU's offensive production will depend on how long the offensive line can hold off the Hokie's defense. I have a feeling they will be attacking our offense from the very beginning trying to wear us out and get us scared. Our best chance will be to get off some quick passes or screens to make them back off. Dudzik won't be able to hold onto the ball for more than 4 seconds on most plays so getting a long shot to Kerby will be difficult. Virginia Tech's defense is fast, but inexperienced. JMU needs to use that against them and do reverses and misdirections. Also, use the option a lot. Make them oversell. Playactions and flea flickers will come in handy too. DE Chris Drager is also injured, so J.R. Collins will be making his first start and is two inches shorter. This is on the left side against big man Theo Sherman, so it's pretty ideal for the Dukes. Make them hesitate and make sure they don't put 8 or 9 in the box. Make them stay honest, but don't be reckless.

The one thing we can not do is turn it over. Surprise surprise, but basically every game we've lost since 2004 has been because of turnovers. RB's need to hold onto the ball and Dudzik needs to focus and make sure that he hits his receivers. We had a tendency to throw long last week, which will get us in trouble against Tech. There is ZERO margin for error this week. Once we're down by 2 or 3 touchdowns, Mickey will put in Jace Edwards, our true freshman QB, which will pretty much signal we've given up trying to win.

On defense, JMU is in a tight spot. Tyrod Taylor in the past has been known to not be a good passer and has thrown many interceptions, but he seems to be much more selective this year (at least from the Boise State game). He is also still a huge threat at quarterback, which could spell disaster for the Dukes. And if that wasn't enough, the Hokie running backs are even more dangerous. Ryan Williams could be up for the Heisman if he has the season people expect him to. The one weakness to their offense is their offensive line. JMU needs to assert as much power as they can early and try to contain their running. While we lost a couple NFL quality linemen to graduation, the returns can definitely do the job. O'Neil, Emmons, Brown, and Bryant are all capable of getting in the backfield and causing chaos. JMU's defense from front to back is very solid though, so I would expect us to hold them to fewer points than some people expect. Our safeties are FCS All-American quality and we are deep at linebacker. We'll need these guys to step up and make at least one interception or force a fumble.  This will deflate the fans and kill their offensive rhythm. Both Tyrod and Ryan carry the ball very loosely and came very close to fumbling several times on Monday. We can't sacrifice a tackle, but if we have a couple guys trying to pull one of them down, get a hand in and pull it out. Another key is to stay behind them and prevent the long play. I would rather give them 5 yard passes all day and run the clock out faster than give them the easy opportunity for a long bomb that would get their players and fans excited.

Special teams could be interesting. Everyone has heard about 'Beamer Ball,' but on Monday we all saw that Virginia Tech is more than capable of having miscues. Skahn looks to be an excellent punter for us and last week our kickers did the job pretty well (other than the one kickoff that went out of bounds). There's no need to take risks here. If they're closing in on punt returns, fair catch it. Memories of the Montana game are still clear in my mind.

They are coming off a close loss on Monday to a better team. Yes, they'll come out fired up, but that doesn't always mean they will be focused. The fans won't be nearly as into it after the loss, playing against an FCS team, on an early Saturday game, in crappy weather. If we can score early, get a turnover, or a 3-and-out...it'll shut them up quickly.

The Series

JMU is 0-6 against Virginia Tech, the last game being played in 2003. The Dukes were outscored by a combined score of 0-90 the last two games.

My Thoughts
JMU is a longshot to be in this game. We're playing one of the top FBS teams in the country. While, in my opinion, overrated, they are still an extremely good team. This isn't Maryland (the bottom of the ACC), it's Virginia Tech (one of the best in the ACC). All the same, if the Dukes play mistake-free football, we can keep it close enough to make Tech fans uncomfortable. Our defense is good enough to hold them closer than what all of the people saying, "Tech will determine the margin of victory." Our offensive line is the only thing that scares me. Whether we can score or not will depend on them. Most of Tech's players probably went to high school with a lot of JMU players, or at least played against them. While there's probably some respect there, it's not much. JMU's players are tired of hearing that they're the a JV team. They're ready to get out there and play. The best thing JMU can do is come out quick and score in the first 10 minutes of the game. If that happens, the Hokies will start to doubt themselves. JMU will keep it close for at least the first half. This will definitely be an interesting game to watch. I think JMU can get a couple touchdowns and a couple field goals. I'm gonna go ahead and say we miss an extra point though...something on special teams has gotta go wrong...I'd rather it be that than anything else. Virginia Tech will average a touchdown a quarter and get a couple more field goals. There will be a lot more running than in Monday's game, so the score will be lower. The chances of an upset are slim, but it's not impossible. We've been drinking the kool-aid over the past week and, to be honest, we really really reeeeeeally don't like Virginia Tech. Nothing would bring the Windbreaker more joy than to crush their hopes and dreams (plus we found their sensitivity after the Boise St. loss amusing and couldn't imagine what they would be like after a loss to lowly ol' JMU). GO DUKES!

Windbreaker prediction: JMU - 19 (that's right, 19), Virginia Tech - 34
My prediction (copying JMU Sports Blog): JMU - 27, Virginia Tech - 24
ESPN ACC blog prediction: JMU - 7, Virginia Tech - 42
USA Today prediction: JMU - 14, Virginia Tech - 27


Other Previews

JMU Sports Blog
Planet Blacksburg
Virginia Tech Fan


Game Notes
JMU Game Notes

Score Updates
To get score updates on Twitter, subscribe to @JMUWindbreaker. I'll be posting scores at the end of each quarter and any major action that happens.

Live Video
If something crazy happens, and it's close at the end check Qik.com/JMUWindbreaker for live video from the stands.

And as always...