#6 Villanova Wildcats (2-1, 5-1) vs. #16 JMU Dukes (2-3, 0-2)
Oct. 17, 2009 - 3:30pm - Harrisonburg, VA
Watch the game on Madizone
or the Comcast Network (previously CN8)
Weather Report
| Tailgating | 8am | 37° | 40% (precip) |
| Mid-tailgate | 11am | 42° | 30% |
| Getting into the stadium | 2:30pm | 43° | 30% |
| Kickoff | 3:30pm | 43° | 30% |
| Game over | 6:30pm | 42° | 30% |
Line for the game
Villanova by 3.5
Injuries
WR Kerby Long will miss another 3-5 weeks. CB Mike Allen is still out as far as I've seen. QB Drew Dudzik is out with a broken foot for 4+ weeks. TB Griff Yancey (quad), K Dixon Wright (quad) and LG Roane Babington (flu) were all out earlier this week, but are expected back for the game.
I haven't heard of any major injuries for Villanova.
The Numbers (game averages)
Sagarin Strength of Schedule: 58.80 (137)
JMU Rushing Offense: 195 yds - Villanova Rushing Defense: 90 yds
JMU Passing Offense: 150 yds - Villanova Passing Defense: 248 yds
JMU Total Offense: 345 yds - Villanova Total Defense: 338 yds
JMU Scoring Offense: 27 - Villanova Scoring Defense: 16
Sacks: 2 - Sacks allowed: 1.8
Sagarin Strength of Schedule: 55.72 (156)
Villanova Rushing Offense: 201 yds - JMU Rushing Defense: 130 yds
Villanova Passing Offense: 157 yds - JMU Passing Defense: 153 yds
Villanova Total Offense: 358 yds - JMU Total Defense: 283 yds
Villanova Scoring Offense: 31 - JMU Scoring Defense: 22
Sacks: 2.67 - Sacks allowed: 3.83
What to watch
Dudzik is out, leaving Thorpe as our quarterback. He had a costly fumble to end the Richmond game, but before that he had led the Dukes down to the six yard line in something that Mickey frequently refers to as one of those "championship drives". With Thorpe as the QB, we will work best as a running team. He is a good passer, but sometimes makes freshman decisions to pass when he's off-balance. If he can learn to not make quick decisions to pass it without fully seeing the field and to hold onto the ball when running, he'll have a very good day. The biggest mismatch tomorrow will be JMU's passing offense vs. Villanova's pass defense. If JMU can exploit this without making big mistakes, they'll have a huge scoring day. Main targets: Corwin, Rockeed and Caussin, with some Bosco mixed in to just to mess with Villanova's emotions. I also predict Griff will have a big day after getting some more experience back on offense.
Villanova's main weapon is their wildcat formation. They'll snap it straight to WR Szczur and he'll take off running. QB Whitney and TB Ball are also outstanding runners. If we can contain their running game, we cut out a huge part of their offense. Forcing them to pass, which will hopefully give us time to let Moats (recently added to the Buchanan watch list for best defense player in the nation) and Daniels get in there and get some sacks, will give JMU their best chance at the win.
JMU will come out hard on Homecoming coming off of two straight losses. They're gonna do everything they can to not let this be a close game. They can feel the playoffs slipping away from them and are going to be pulling out all the stops to stay in. On the other hand, Villanova has revenge to go off of after we beat them twice last year, both times within the last minute or so of the game.
The Series
JMU leads the series 10-7 overall. JMU has won the last three games, including twice last year. The last time Villanova won was in 2006 at Villanova, 21-20. Last year, JMU won a tight game in a rainstorm at Villanova during the regular season by a hail mary (see video below). JMU met Villanova again in the quarterfinals of the playoffs in Bridgeforth. JMU led most of the game, but had to lead a game-winning drive at the end to take the lead back after Villanova went up 5 minutes before. This has traditionally been a very tight match, so look for a close game tomorrow.
My Thoughts
Two straight weeks of painful losses. We had the win and let it slip away. The Richmond game felt a lot like the 2007 playoff game at App State. I think our guys are ready to get out there and prove to the nation that they're not out of it yet. The offense knows they have one guy to stand behind now. Anyone who was in Drew's camp now knows they have to follow Thorpe now, and I think that will be a huge help. JMU is fighting for the playoffs and won't let that slip away. The crowd and the emotions will keep the Dukes giving 110% through the end of the game and Thorpe's practice holding onto the ball this week will pay off. The Dukes start their march to the playoffs.
Windbreaker prediction: JMU - 31, Villanova - 24
Game Notes
JMU Game Notes
Score Updates
To get score updates on Twitter, subscribe to @JMUWindbreaker. I'll be posting scores at the end of each quarter and any major action that happens.
And as always...
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