Even though JMU had a bye week in week 3, there is still a lot of interesting things to discuss. This could be a very special year for the Dukes so I'm going to try to stay consistent on updates.
Past Opponents
Morehead State (225) - Lost to Dayton. This win will continue to bring down our strength of schedule in the Sagarin ratings. MSU is averaging 41 rushing yards/game after three weeks.
Virginia Tech (28) - After a ending the first half down to ECU, Tech stormed back and won 49-27. Looks like VT has gotten its confidence and will make our win look even better as the weeks go on.
Future Opponents
Liberty (144) - Lost to Robert Morris (23-30), ranked 193 in Sagarins, whose only other win was against Sacred Heart, ranked 239. After beating FBS team Ball St, Liberty played Robert Morris in a true trap game and was I guess looking ahead to our game next week. This could still be a close game, but don't look to be holding your breath in the second half. RMU got 4.1 yards/rush, so look for JMU to stuff it down Liberty's throat.
Delaware (92) - This is still a HUGE question mark. Game 1 was against DII West Chester where they won 31-0. Game 2 was against South Dakota State, ranked 170, and they won 26-3. Game 3 was against a bad Duquesne team (also the Dukes), ranked 199, where they won 30-6. They haven't even had a decent test yet, so they are a big unknown. They have great skill players in QB Devlin (Penn State transfer) and freshman RB Pierce who is putting up huge numbers. I still consider them 1-2 TD favorites in their game against Richmond this weekend.
Towson (179) - What can I say, Towson is Towson. 1-2, their only win took them 5 overtimes to beat a bad Coastal Carolina team. They lost to Villanova 7-43. Even at Towson's very nice stadium, we'll probably still claim the numbers for a home field advantage and win it in the first half.
UNH (128) - This was a real head-scratcher. Week 1, they beat Central Connecticut State 33-3. Week 2 they played Pittsburgh respectably, 16-38. This past weekend though, they played a Rhode Island team that won a single game last season and hasn't won more than one CAA game since 2006. I'll keep my eye on UNH, but for our Homecoming game, this just got slightly less stressful in my mind.
Villanova (69) - This will be very tough. Last year's National Champions took #46 ranked, now 3-0 Temple down to the end and narrowly lost 24-31. They beat a decent Lehigh team 35-0 and a bad Towson team 43-7. If we're still undefeated up to this point (fairly likely), look for a rough game up at Villanova.
UMass (72) - UMass is looking stronger than they have in recent years. They beat a mediocre W&M team 27-23. They beat a bad Holy Cross team 31-7. Then they lost a very close game to #20 Michigan, 42-37. Probably the fourth best CAA team at this point behind Villanova, JMU, and Delaware.
Richmond (84) - Richmond lost at Virginia 13-34 to start the year, had their bye week on week 2, and barely beat a decent Elon team 27-21 in overtime. Richmond had 3 turnovers in that game and their defense allowed Elon to gain 392 yards, 319 of which were in the air. Reports are that both their offensive and defensive lines played terrible and passes were not very accurate. Richmond is a sloppy team with a new coach, lots of new players, and a new (much smaller stadium) and I don't see them as much of a threat this year.
William & Mary (101) - Week one: lost to UMass 23-27. Week two: shutout VMI 45-0. Week three: won a very close game to ODU (more on them later), 21-17. W&M's defense is weak and their offense isn't much better. After a very strong season last year, there has been a huge dropoff for Waste Mana...William & Mary. There is no reason for a game to be that close against a team in only its second year of existence. Senior Day at JMU will be a chance to blow up a W&M team that put a hurting on us last year.
Maine (163) - Lost to a bad Albany team 0-3. Beat a worse Monmouth team 31-23. Lost to FBS Syracuse, 14-38. I'm not scared of the team, but we will be playing in Maine on Nov 20. It will be cold and weather conditions could be bad. There's still a lot of time between now and then, but I think if we're undefeated, we fight to defend that, if we have one loss, we'll hopefully still be fighting to get a top 4 seed for playoffs. If we have more than one loss, it could be hard to get motivated before playoffs.
Other Teams of Interest
Georgia State (234) - Beat DII Shorter team, 41-7. Lost to NAIA team, Lambuth, 14-23. Then they took Jacksonville State (who beat Ole Miss in double-overtime to start the season) to overtime, but lost 27-34 in their first season of football. They will join the CAA in 2012, so this is a team to keep your eye on.
Montana (123) - Perennial FCS power Montana started the season with a 73-2 beating on DII Western State. They they lost at Cal Poly (ranked 133), 35-33. This past weekend they lost at Eastern Washington, 27-36. Luckily for them, they play in the Big Sky and would have to be upset to lose another game this season, but maybe for the first time in awhile they won't win the Big Sky. I'm pretty sure they'll still get an at-large spot in the playoffs though unless they have a complete meltdown.
Elon (122) - A playoff team from a year ago, they lost at Duke 27-41. They beat a DII Shaw team by 55-26. And then they lost at Richmond in OT, 21-27. They play in the weak Southern Conference with a App State team that is surprisingly not dominating this year (though they did lose QB Armanti Edwards to graduation...instead of to a lawn mower like last year). Look for them to challenge for the SoCon crown and make it to the playoffs even though I wouldn't expect them to make it past the first round or two.
App State (100) - Won a way-too-close game at now 1-2 Chattanooga, 42-41. Beat a terrible Jacksonville team 45-14. Then beat an even worse NC Central team, 44-16. May be the first year App State has legitimate cause for concern over winning the SoCon, though they'll probably still make the playoffs. Ends the regular season playing Florida.
Old Dominion (213) - Second year of playing and they're already competing with W&M? They started the year losing to a terrible Jacksonville team (same one that got crushed by Appy), 25-35. Then they beat a terrible Campbell team (worst team in all of DI football). This past weekend they kept it close against the Tribe. I'm thinking it was a combination of W&M being bad this year, not wanting to lose to their 757 neighbors, and ODU wanting to prove that it wasn't going to be a CAA patsy when it joins the conference next year. Impressive? Kinda. Cause for concern? Definitely not. At least not yet.
In a related note, Richmond has tried to start a tradition of throwing streamers in their new stadium. Sound familiar? This has been a JMU tradition for decades and a JMU football tradition for over half a decade. App State has also tried to copy our streamer throwing. While I appreciate that they think we're that awesome, that's our thing. Stop now.
